Friday, January 20, 2012

NFL Conference Championship Week Picks

2 games this week, which means we're getting close to the end. As much fun as the playoffs are it's a little depressing to know that we are 17 days away from no football until September.

Baltimore at New England; 3:00 PM, CBS
Weather: 34, mostly cloudy, 20% percipitation
Line: Patriots -7
Money Line: Patriots -300, Ravens +250
O/U: 50.5



Preview: 
I don't know if there was much to take away from either of these teams' divisional games that we didn't already know. The Ravens beat an overmatched Texans in a game where both teams looked like they were playing for draft position. The Patriots beat the living shit out of the Tebows in a game that was over sometime last Tuesday. So we know the Ravens have some pretty severe flaws and are subject to playing bizzarely bad from time to time. And we know the Patriots are front running teams that will throttle teams they are better than at home.


Prediction: 
There is one way, and one way only that Baltimore makes this game close and possibly wins. Suggs, Ngata, and Ray Lewis need to get into Brady's face and put him on his ass early and often so he is rattled. I don't think that will happen, and even if it does I'm not sure how much they can actually rattle him. Plus you'd be putting some faith in Flacco on the road, and that seems like a pretty foolish proposition. Sounds like Ed Reed is going to play, so that will help in the effort to slow down the Pats, but I just can't see it. You know that other level that Aaron Rodgers was operating in in the middle of the season? That's where Brady is now, and I'd rather see somebody doing it in January than November. I'll take The Pats to cover, and the over. They're going to put up 35+, and Baltimore will grab a garbage time TD or two against the Pat's leaky pass D. Even the Broncos scored into double digits.

Side Note: 
Belichek had Tom Brady PUNT ON THIRD FUCKING DOWN! How is this not a bigger deal? I realize it happened late on a Saturday in a game that everyone had probably tuned out by then, but wow. That shit is crazy. The ultimate eff you move if you ask me.


Patriots 45, Ravens 17


New York at San Francisco; 6:30 PM, FOX
Weather: 56, Showers (40%)
Line: Niners -2.5
Money Line: Niners -130, Giants +110
O/U:  42

Preview: 
Just like everyone predicted, the Packers and Saints bowed out early. The Niners-Saints game was incredible, I couldn't believe Alex Smith had that in him. The Giants are playing great, right now, and Eli is right at the doorstep of that Brady/Rodgers/Brees level. If he wins here and even matches Brady in the Super Bowl then it is definitely in the discussion. Jacobs, miraculously, is running as well as I've ever seen him, and Nicks and Cruz might be the 2 best receivers left in the playoffs, and they are on the same team. Niners will definitely have their hands full on defense.

Don't look for Alex Smith to play as well this week. The Giants pass rush (with just the front 4) is WAY better than the Saints, they play better on the road than the Saints do, and with the pressure from the front 4 they will be able to drop more into coverage to confuse Smith. How they will match up with Vernon Davis, who knows. That's San Fran's X-Factor.



Prediction:
Like I said, I just can't see the Niners playing as well as they did last week. The Saints definitely had some problems as good as they were, and even then they turned the ball over a shitload and were still right there in the end. Eli has minimized turnovers this year and I look for that to continue. I'm taking the Giants to win outright. 2.5 points isn't much so either take the Niners to cover if you disagree or take the Giants money line. I don't know about the Over/Under, I could see the Niners having a tough time putting up points here but 42 is pretty low.

Giants 24 Niners 10

No comments:

Post a Comment