Friday, January 13, 2012

Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Got a few right last week, but swung and missed on a few as well. Hopefully do better this time around now that I've had a look at half of these teams.

SATURDAY GAMES

New Orleans at San Francisco; 4:30 PM, FOX
Weather: 65, Sunny
Line: Saints -4
Money Line: Saints -190, Niners +165
O/U: 47

Preview: Saints will be coming off a home victory over the Lions that was a lot closer than it seemed. Brees is Brees, and he will spread the ball around to all of the weapons they have on that offense. Also, Pierre Thomas does not get nearly as much respect from fans as he should, I blame fantasy football. The 49ers shocked everybody all season with great defense and special teams and an offense that doesn't make many mistakes despite having Alex Smith at quarterback. A lot of the credit for the mistake free football from the offense can also be attributed to Braylon Edwards being injured the majority of the season.


Prediction: The Niners didn't get a week off by accident, but with that offense it's hard to believe that they are as good as their record ended up. Keep in mind the Saints would have had not only a first round bye but the one seed if not for inexplicably trying to run the ball in at the end of the season opener when they had DREW FUCKING BREES and could have won if they passed. San Francisco's D has been particularly good against the run, but in what looks to be pretty good weather I don't think Sean Payton gives half a shit whether they run the ball or not. This game just feels like New Orleans is going to go downfield, and I can't imagine that Niners will keep up with them. Feel free to hammer the Saints. It could certainly go to the over, since the Saints are going to be up and Frisco will be slinging it to catch up.

Saints 34 Niners 17

Denver at New England; 8:00 PM, CBS
Weather: 32, Windy, 20% precipitation
Line: Patriots -13.5
Money Line: Patriots -700 Broncos +500
O/U: 50.5

Preview: Alright, Tebow won. He beat a Pittsburgh team that was beat the hell up and showed absolutely no respect to his ability to throw the ball over 5 yards. I don't really know what to say about him other than that, it still makes no sense to me that he can have any success in the NFL. The Patriots, on the other hand are an offensive machine. Brady, Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez are all top players at their positions.

Prediction: Anybody confident in Tim Tebow in the cold and wind? Didn't think so. Anybody want to bet against Belichek outscheming a team with inferior talent? No? Sounds good. Pats are going to run up the score, and since the spread is less than 2 touchdowns I think that is pretty safe. Over looks good too, figure the Patriots to put up 40+ and their pass D is shit, so Denver should punch in a couple if Tebow can find Thomas downfield.

Patriots 41 Broncos 17

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Houston at Baltimore; 1:00 PM, CBS
Weather: 38, mostly sunny
Line: Ravens -7.5
Money Line: Ravens -340, Texans +280
O/U: 36


Preview: This is clearly the least interesting game of the weekend, and this early spot on Sunday is the perfect place for it. Feel free to make your Chipotle run or whatever you need to do to cure your hangover during the first half here. It will serve you better than watching TJ Yates and Unibrow alternate trying not to fuck up and Ray Lewis doing whatever it is Ray Lewis does when he's playing football and not murdering people.

Prediction: I personally don't trust Flacco at all. That being said, he's going against TJ Yates. If you really want some action on this game go for the over and hope for a defensive TD or a few long Ray Rice runs to push it past. Otherwise this is a bit of a stay away because both teams have some serious question marks.

Ravens 24 Texans 20

New York at Green Bay; 4:00 PM, FOX
Weather: 30, partly cloudy
Line: Packers -7.5
Money Line: Packers -310, Giants +255
O/U: 52.5


Preview: Here we go. Packers have only lost one game all year, but the Giants were as close to beating them as anybody besides the Saints. (And the Chiefs, obviously, but that was an aberration). What to make of the Giants is anybody's guess, they look great, they suck, Eli looks like Peyton, then Eli throws a pick six. People seem to like them here a bit, the line has moved a whole point.

Prediction: I have talked myself into and out of picking the Giants several times this week. The Packers are really good and Aaron Rodgers is fucking great, but if the Giants can get pressure with their front 4 (they can) and drop everybody into coverage, that is a big deal. Plus we have no idea how healthy Greg Jennings knee is. Granted, he can put the team on his back even after he breaks his fucking leg, but a bum knee is a different thing. I think taking the points is a good move here, but if it is dry enough that they can still throw it's tough to talk myself into taking the Giants to win straight up.

Packers 38 Giants 31

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